Monthly Reversal - MG - Security & Protection Services - September 17, 2026

Why this is a Monthly Reversal

MG triggered a monthly reversal signal on September 17, 2026, one of three stocks the filter surfaced that day, ranking first. The stock closed up 2.48% on nearly three times the prior session's volume — the core signature of a monthly reversal: as a long decline or basing phase turns into a new monthly uptrend, price reclaims its key monthly moving averages and volume expands on the reversal month, while the dried-up volume of the preceding decline is still visible. The close stood above its 20-, 120-, 200- and 250-day moving averages, and the 120-day sat about 9% above the 200-day, leaving both the medium- and long-term trends turned up. On relative strength, RPS50 was 88.1 and RPS250 was 92.2, squarely in the leadership band the filter looks for.

How the filter reads it

Below are the dimensions the monthly reversal formula reads, and how MG measured on September 17, 2026.

Dimension	Reading	Result
Relative Strength	In the leadership band (RPS50 88.1 / RPS250 92.2)	Pass
Trend structure	Moving averages stacked and rising	Pass
Price position	Back near the top of its range (close to the 120-day high)	Pass
Monthly structure	A monthly reversal from weakness to strength	Pass
Signal uniqueness	First trigger in about half a month	Yes

Fundamental Fact Sheet

Market Cap About USD 631.9 million

PE (TTM) 23.34

Forward PE 15.68

ROE 11.78%

Net margin 3.65%

Revenue YoY +4.2%

Valuation metrics are from the latest snapshot; profitability and growth are trailing-twelve-month figures. These numbers are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Data sources and calculation methods may differ from official filings; verify independently before making any decision.

Mistras Group is a technology-driven provider of industrial asset integrity and non-destructive testing (NDT) solutions, headquartered in New Jersey and listed on the NYSE in 2009, with roughly 4,800 full-time employees worldwide. Revenue is heavily concentrated in North America (about 80%); by service type, field testing accounts for 75%, laboratory services 15% and data analytics and software 10%. Among end markets, oil and gas makes up about 57% of revenue, the single largest exposure.

Growth

Q2 2026 is the evidence for this earnings inflection: revenue of USD 193 million, up 4.2% year on year and 14.3% quarter on quarter, with net income up 151.3% year on year and 217.5% quarter on quarter. Profit grew far faster than revenue, pointing to operating leverage rather than volume-driven growth.
Growth is being structurally substituted: in fiscal 2025 aerospace and defence rose 7.8%, industrial 12.6% and infrastructure 13.2%, offsetting the decline in oil and gas revenue (-5.3% in fiscal 2025 and -8.2% in Q2 2026).
The balance sheet improved in step: net assets up 11.2% year on year and interest-bearing debt down 5.2%, consistent with the profit recovery.

Business catalysts

Q3 2026 results, expected in early November 2026: consensus looks for USD 203.4 million of revenue and EPS of USD 0.430, the key checkpoint for whether the margin expansion continues.
Full-year 2026 guidance was raised on 2026-08-10 to USD 740-755 million of revenue and USD 92-95 million of adjusted EBITDA.
The Vision 2030 strategy, covering digital expansion, penetration of high-growth markets and efficiency gains, runs across 2026-2027.
Product and channel progress: AEScout, an acoustic emission monitoring solution, launched on 2026-07-15, and five new US service locations opened on 2026-09-02.

Risks

High leverage compounds high operating leverage: debt to equity is about 102%, with USD 211 million of interest-bearing debt against USD 240 million of net assets; a swing of just 1% in revenue can move profit by 10-20%, as the 2023 net loss of USD 17 million demonstrated.
Cash flow diverges from profit: operating cash flow fell 34.2% year on year in 2025, roughly three times the 11.2% decline in net income, so the income statement recovery is not yet matched on the cash flow statement.
A high base in Q3 2025: that quarter delivered USD 13 million of net income and EPS of 0.41, well above the quarters around it, so the year-on-year comparison in Q3 2026 faces natural pressure.
Oil and gas dependence remains the single largest variable: about 57% of revenue and falling for consecutive periods, and the company's own guidance attributes volatility to the pace of oil and gas capex and the timing of project awards.
Thin analyst coverage: only two analysts, so the USD 23.0 mean target rests on too small a sample to count as effective consensus.
A very small float (9.1285 million shares, about 28.7% of the total): price reactions to marginal news can far exceed the actual change in fundamentals.

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